7.1 Introduction
7.2 Planning
7.3 Project planning phases
7.4 Systems analysis in planning
7.5 Forecasting problems
7.6 Operation and maintenance
7.7 Recommendations
The preceding sections have attempted to describe the physical factors affecting water availability and the methods employed in its development to supply livestock and their owners. No attempt has been made to deal with the associated topics of animal water needs, organisation and management of water supplies and the economics and planning of water supplies. These are dealt with by the companion reports in this series (King, 1983; Sandford, 1983).
Some important aspects of planning merit repetition in this report, however, and this concluding chapter makes recommendations principally in the two fields of planning, and operation and maintenance.
Planning may be defined as 'the orderly consideration of a project from the original statement of purpose through the evaluation of alternatives to the final decision on a course of action' (Linsley and Franzini, 1979). It may also include the concept of 'master planning', which attempts to assess the resources of regions, nations or river basins, and to define the optimum future growth pattern within that area, taking into account physical, technical, economic, organisational, institutional, legal and political criteria.
Planning, in the context of livestock water supplies, will usually be concerned with single projects. Nevertheless, every opportunity should be taken to make use of master planning activities for water; not only to achieve the optimum economic solutions, but also to ensure that all alternatives are considered. An unlikely alternative for a livestock project may well become an option when included in a wider context. For example, reference has already been made to the use of large multipurpose or power generation reservoirs either as direct water supplies for livestock or as river-regulating reservoirs to increase the dry-season flow.
In the field of soil and water conservation remedial measures to arrest soil erosion may be completely uneconomic in terms of a single project. Taken as a national programme to conserve water resources, however, or integrated with agroforestry projects, the required reafforestation and soil conservation measures may well attract the necessary funding.
Legal aspects are also best dealt with during master planning activities for water. Whether it be the revision of existing legislation to permit or control new developments, or legislation to conserve or protect the environment, important changes may be impossible to bring about except in the context of national or river basin planning.
Another important aspect relates to the gathering of meteorological and hydrological data. Studies and analyses of such data may be critical in the evaluation of different alternatives. Such studies may be extremely expensive in terms of a single project, but they are fully justified in terms of national programmes. Furthermore, national or basinwide hydrological analyses, which are normally carried out within master plan activities for water, may even provide predictive tools to assess the water resources of ungauged catchments and so obviate the need for detailed data-gathering exercises.
Regional groundwater resource studies will assist in optimum aquifer development. Master planning may also have a bearing on the availability of equipment of high capital cost, such as geophysical equipment and drilling rigs.
Often the first phase of a master plan is the compilation of a data inventory including meteorological, hydrological, geological and water quality data etc. The assembly, scrutiny and collation of such data banks greatly eases the task of the designer of new water supply schemes. There is often not the time, or it may be physically impossible, to assemble all existing data for a preliminary report. Incomplete or inaccurate studies may influence decisions as to whether to proceed and perhaps incur unnecessary costs, as well as expose projects to the hazard of a serious error.
It must not be thought, however, that master planning for water is the panacea for all future water supply problems. All too often, master plans are little more than catalogues of all physically feasible programmes, they have incomplete economic analyses and bear no relation to a country's economic development programme and priorities. In any case, master plans based on future growth patterns depend critically on technological advances, economic development and availability of funds. Master planning should be a dynamic process, with revision of objectives and priorities keeping pace with technical, cultural, political and economic changes.
Very few developing countries have gone beyond the initial stages of resource inventorising and technical evaluation of options. Even where an overall regional water management plan has been formulated, natural disasters (e.g. floods, droughts), worldwide economic depressions, political instability and a general lack of experience in implementing large-scale master plans for water means that 'crisis management' or political expediency takes the place of rational development.
Whether individual projects are carried out within the framework of a master plan for water or separately, there are a number of phases or stages through which project planning usually passes before the final plan emerges.
Pre-planning phase. Unless available data are clearly sufficient to evaluate the resource, the hydrological analysis may be the controlling aspect of planning. If the historical data appear inadequate, steps should be taken to collect the required data as early as possible. This will involve the installation of new stations, unless regional analyses can be used, as described above.
Reconnaissance phase. This phase usually involves the technical identification and evaluation of alternatives to eliminate those projects which are clearly not feasible. The terms of reference of the next stage, the feasibility phase, are finalised at this point because of the costs involved in feasibility studies.
Feasibility phase. The feasibility study usually requires that the structural details of the options be evaluated and specified in sufficient detail to allow an accurate cost estimate of each option. This includes the economic evaluation of the benefits and costs, together with an identification of the intangible benefits or implications of a project.
Project evaluation phase. Projects are usually evaluated in economic terms, but it is important to consider the environmental implications of water resource projects and if necessary, commission an appropriate environmental impact assessment. Unfortunately, most projects are not known in sufficient detail in the pre-feasibility phases to allow detailed environmental impact assessments to be made. With important projects where the phasing of construction imposes time constraints there will be a tendency to force decisions through before a proper environmental impact assessment can be made. This should be strongly resisted since once a project has proceeded to final design there is a reluctance to withdraw, and the financial penalties of so doing tend to be weighed against any environmental consideration.
Final design. Once a decision has been taken to proceed with a particular option, the final design can be drawn up, construction drawings and bills of quantities can be prepared, and the construction plan can be finalised. It is recommended that the irrevocable instructions to proceed, by the client to the contractor, be delayed until completion of the final design because of the possibility that the more detailed design study may produce factors which affect feasibility. For this reason it is important that studies made at the feasibility stage (hydrological analyses, source yields, demand curves) should be carried out in sufficient detail to prevent erroneous evaluations.
Construction phase. The final phase is usually considered to be the construction phase, but two other important aspects should be included in the overall planning: operation and maintenance training and project monitoring.
Operation and maintenance training phase. In order to ensure that a project continues to supply water, it is vitally important to establish an appropriate operation and maintenance organisation. Very often, the best people to train the local people in operation and maintenance are those responsible for installing the equipment. There is a tendency for so-called 'turn-key' projects to be handed over to clients without adequate provision being made for training of operation and maintenance staff. This may not be so important where the client is capable of carrying out his own training programme. Where he is not, however, it might make the difference between the long life of a water supply scheme or early failure.
Project-monitoring phase. This is the most neglected aspect of planning. Ultimately, experience with completed projects forms the basis for future planning, for realistic phasing and for accurate economic forecasts. It also allows recurrent costs of operation and maintenance to be assessed. This is the most appropriate way to get a feedback of information for revision of a master plan.
Much criticism of aid programmes stems not so much from the faulty planning or faulty implementation of a project, but more from the absence of a monitoring phase. Often a timely report that a project is going wrong may be sufficient to stimulate the extra action needed to save it from failure. Rapidly changing economic conditions, climatic anomalies, political upsets and human fallibility can all change the probability of a project's success. Recognition of changing circumstances, of faulty forecasting or of the occurrence of extreme events may enable appropriate remedial action to be taken before a project becomes totally uneconomic.
One of the critical stages in the planning process is to evaluate the possible alternatives in order to select the best in terms of some specified criterion. The criterion most commonly used is cost but, where unquantifiable social benefits have a high priority, the least-cost solution may not be the best.
The various methods of optimisation, collectively known as systems analysis, have different applications. They can be used for single items in a project (e.g. one could optimise well diameter in relation to water demand, pump efficiency and discharge, aquifer thickness, cost of materials and water level fluctuation). They may be applied to single projects (e.g. number of each type of water supply system in an area), or to multiple projects where a large number of options is available.
An example of the use of systems analysis in water resource planning can be found in de Ridder and Erez (1977). In an integrated project for agriculture described by these authors, surface water availability was a limiting factor. The optimum solution was found to be the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater. The authors point out that although the number of possible plans for joint use is very large, only a few are physically feasible.
With large, complex systems the number of parameters and variables becomes so large as to make optimisation impossible. In such cases, a number of solutions based on experience can be used in mathematical models to simulate actual conditions. In this way the alternative which offers the maximum net benefits can be identified.
One of the limitations of the systems approach is that any deficiencies in the input data or in the assumption as to the future situation will prevent determination of the true optimum (Linsley and Franzini, 1964). In this case, a range of forecast values or alternative future developments can be combined by preparing various 'scenarios' for the future. The scenario method attempts to frame the various future situations resulting both from the interaction of different factors and from the biophysical or socio-economic conditions influencing their pattern of development.
A combination of systems analysis and the scenario method will assist in identifying the optimum course of action, taking into account a range of possible future situations (UNITAR, 1982). The latter reference gives a number of guidelines for the efficient and harmonious development of water resources which complement the economic analysis.
These are:
i) to examine and weigh systematically all the factors determining the demand for water and to situate activities which require water in a wide and long perspective with respect to competition, regional environment, national strategy etc;ii) to include in the analysis the qualitative variables, which are often more important than quantifiable variables;
iii) to verify the coherency of measures in the organisation and financing of development;
iv) to reveal the insufficiencies in available information, making a distinction in particular between indispensable information and information which is only secondary with respect to the objectives chosen, and to identify priority development actions which would not be questioned in the light of additional information;
v) to assess the sensitivity of the decisions to changes in one or other of the selection criteria, or in its relative importance, so that the water resources development programme will be better adapted to the overall economic and social development strategy;
vi) to avoid as much as possible dangerous and irreversible situations for the future of the natural and/or socio-economic balances which exist at present or are to be created in arid areas; and
vii) to facilitate the exchange of various points of view from those people affected by and involved in the development.
It is also important to note that water resource planning, or the planning of any other activity, must not be done in isolation. In any plan, whether for a single project or for a component of a national master plan, the real constraints are rarely technical. The flow of funds or materials, the logistics of implementation and the organisational problems of establishing operation and maintenance facilities are more important, and often depend on priorities determined at the national level. The optimum plan will be one which is in phase with other development activities. The speed of implementation may not be as important as the building up of the necessary institutional framework to ensure the continuing success of a project. The least-cost solution, therefore, may not be the best option in the long run.
Possibly the two most important key factors in the operation of a supply system are 'simplicity' and 'reliability'. In tropical Africa and, indeed, in the whole of the developing world, there is a general lack of mechanical experience and technical skills. Whereas training programmes may be able to change this situation over the next 20 years, there is still a need now to install simple systems which have a minimum risk of mechanical failure and the minimum reliance on imported parts.
Reliability is a relative term, of course, and may well depend on the environment, on the pattern of use and on the measures taken to protect a water supply system against vandalism. Ultimately, these factors can be summarised under 'appropriate design'. There has been a tendency in the past for captive markets to be unable to exert the pressure on suppliers of hand pumps, for example, to modify their designs. As a result, inappropriate designs with inherently high maintenance costs have persisted in spite of strong criticism. The advent of the International Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade has acted as a catalyst to designers and to manufacturers. The emphasis is now on low-maintenance systems, and manufacturers who refuse to modify their designs to meet the demands of developing countries will find that they lose the potentially huge markets.
Because of the enormous numbers of rural water supply systems which will have to be installed to meet the needs of the growing rural population, low operation and maintenance costs are essential. Most countries are looking towards community-level maintenance systems, where all appropriate repairs are done by men or women in the community who are given some basic instruction. Low-cost maintenance systems also imply that when the community-level maintenance organisation is unable to cope with a more serious problem, the next level can be brought in without enormous cost. Clearly it is much cheaper for a locally-based man on a bicycle or on a motor-bicycle to make the visit rather than teams of people in high-cost vehicles from a regional maintenance centre.
The choice of methods of exploiting the water resources of an area will depend on many factors which may be culture- and case-specific. It is difficult to generalise, therefore, and possibly dangerous to emphasise only certain aspects of the whole procedure.
A number of important general points can be isolated, however, and identified as having an important impact on the success of a water supply system.
i) Thorough surveys. Prior to the consideration of options, a thorough survey of the physical constraints should be undertaken. This should be based on an understanding of the hydrological cycle and on the concept of probability of occurrence of particular events.ii) Long-range integrated planning. The planning procedure should be as comprehensive as possible, using as many inputs and predictive tools as are available. Particular emphasis should be placed on environmental considerations (including water quality) and on the unquantifiable benefits which have a bearing on the selection of options. Wherever possible, the plan should be based on complete catchment or river basin development.
iii) Sound design. The key elements in design should be simplicity and reliability, with a minimum reliance on outside support for operation and maintenance.
iv) Community participation. Community participation should be encouraged at all levels from planning to implementation. In this way the concept of ownership can be introduced, and this increases the possibility of establishing community-based operation and maintenance facilities.
v) Monitoring and evaluation. At the completion of the construction phase, a planner should consider that only half of his responsibility has been discharged. The monitoring of the operation of a scheme through its early years, and the evaluation of the true costs and the criteria determining the success or failure of a scheme, are essential to the optimum long-term use of the water resources.
The concluding remarks must concern research, for, in a report dealing mainly with techniques of exploitation, little has been said about this important aspect. Although technology tends to advance much faster than its implementation in Third World countries, and although most of the problems of water resource development stem from organisational and logistical shortcomings rather than lack of technology, there are still fields of research activity which could have a major impact on the provision of water supplies. Research into the variability of climate, into more reliable predictive tools for hydrology, into the interrelationship between vegetation and hydrology in semi-arid areas, into the more efficient use of solar energy and into the use of systems analysis with complex, multi-faceted water projects, for example, are all areas which would produce high benefit-cost ratios.
Unfortunately, the world economic recession and the realisation that present implementation lags far behind that projected, if any water supply targets are to be met by the year 2000, have tended to divert already inadequate funds from research into the practical business of getting water to the people. Bearing in mind the relatively insignificant amounts of money which are required to fund water research, compared with the money wasted on projects which are based on unsound planning due to lack of accurate information, any investment in research with a clear practical application is economically sound.
Planning for the future is always full of hazards and pitfalls. The only certainty is that, with populations growing at frightening rates in Africa, there will always be a need for new ideas, new approaches and new technology to alleviate poverty, sickness and suffering.
Another neglected factor is the place of women in rural water supply schemes. Jorgensen (1982) points out that it is women who are usually responsible for the supply of water to the household. They should be involved in or made responsible for maintenance. Elmendorf (1981) reports that this has been the case in Angola, resulting in a marked decrease in the number of repairs. This is the exception rather than the rule, of course, and there are many difficulties in making women the focal point for operation and maintenance activities in societies where, traditionally, men are responsible for well defined tasks, including those which may be classed as technological. Resistance may be expected most strongly in pastoral groups where the position of women in society is relegated to a menial or subservient role.
On the other hand, responsibility for site selection and construction of water supplies is vested in women in many West African countries. Ultimately, women may be more reliable in ensuring the continued operation and maintenance of water supplies because they have a greater vested interest in their continuous operation.
Clearly, as water supply systems become simpler and more reliable, there will be less need for reliance on outside maintenance assistance. This applies equally to provision of replacement items and spare parts. Reliance on imported materials places an additional burden on the central authority responsible for maintenance. Ideally, locally manufactured spare parts should be widely available from retail outlets, as is the case with hand-pump parts in India and water taps for piped water schemes in Malawi.
As the number of water points grows, and as the population increases, thus creating additional demands, so the sheer size of the maintenance problem means that centralised organisation around a government department will not work unless responsibility for first- and second-line maintenance can be delegated to the rural communities.
At the simplest level, as with the maintenance of hand pumps, community caretaker must be trained in first-line maintenance, with additional support from area 'mechanics' who need not be part of the government system. With more sophisticated systems, such as engine-driven motorised boreholes, mechanics must be adequately trained, adequately supplied with spare parts and adequately supervised.
Communities should be encouraged to regard water supply systems as belonging to them rather than to remote organisations. This concept of ownership is critically important in avoiding vandalism, which commonly arises from frustration if water supplies break down. Petty theft of nuts and bolts to make ornaments or tools is a recurrent problem in the remoter areas. This can be partly overcome by good design, but ultimately can only be eliminated by communal action stemming from the concept of ownership.
Miller (1979), in a study of 97 village water supply schemes in seven African countries (Botswana, Cameroon, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Tunisia and Zaire), found that only a small proportion of the projects studied had the responsibility for maintenance mandated to the villages, but that these water supply schemes had a significantly better performance in terms of frequency and length of breakdown. He concludes that self-help and community participation had their most powerful impact on the operation and maintenance aspects of water supply systems.
